(INTRODUCTION)

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, fellow toastmasters.

I am what they call a future historian. We project the future from the events of the past.

In fact, we do the same as economists and astrologers. Next year we can tell you why what we said last year didn't happen this year!

Today, in the year 2006, we can look back at the changes of the last ten years, We trace them back to their causes, before the turn of the millennium.

Just relax, and put yourself into the picture I'm going to tell you what happened between 1996 and 2006.

I'm going to summarize the changes in the United States that led to "Fortress America", I'll talk about the changes in Europe, and finally in Switzerland.

The "spirit of America" began to change in the Dole years, with decisions made by the right extremists at the expense of the lower classes.

They said it was restructuring government and new public management - but just as for businesses, a lot of people lost out in the change.
- the gap between the poor and well-off grew
- the middle-class split, some moving up and some down.
- programs for the young were cancelled and the benefits moved to the senior citizens.

In less-developed countries such a widening gap would lead to widespread social unrest. The U.S. was no different, but there were four major counterforces.

First, there was a tightening crack-down on crime. In California, for instance, the three-strike rule led to more than two percent of California being in jail. The new jails built in the western deserts were really modern concentration camps.

Social problems were still ignored. Even the "million-woman-march" in 1988 had no effect. The media and politicians portrayed the riots of 1999 as criminality, not race or class conflict, and the strengthened police force was able to keep the lid on the pot for a while.

The second counter force was the popularity of carrying personal, concealed handguns. Back in Texas in 1997, after gun control was repealed, one estimate was that more than 30% of women carried guns. Soon it was back to the wild west again.

A third force was that communities began to protect themselves. What does this mean? - a return to the private armies and the walled towns of the middle ages.

The Riots of '99 in the center cities influenced suburban dwellers to isolate and defend themselves - anyway, they could travel over the internet to wherever they wanted. Goods were delivered by armored trucks in escorted convoys.

When the extremists continued to dominate, in the elections of the year 2000, the social pact had been well and truly broken - just as the Third World had been left to starve.

However, America had one danger that under-developed countries did not face- everyone in America is mobile. The result: after center cities were looted, the battles were carried outwards to the shopping malls and the suburbs.

The police couldn't cope any more. America needed the fourth counter factor - and that was prepared by far-sighted decisions made during the Clinton years.

Of all government department budgets, only one did not have its budget cut. In fact they got more money than they asked for - the military.

That's why we we have now in America, what is in effect a military dictatorship.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, fellow toastmasters.

I am what they call a future historian. We project the future from the events of the past. In fact, next year we can tell you why what we said last year didn't happen this year.

Today, in the year 2006, we can look back at the enormous changes of the last ten years, and trace them back to their hidden causes, before the turn of the millennium.

Just relax, and put yourself into the picture I'm going to present

In Berne I talked about America in the Dole years, about the tensions between the poor and well-off, about the battles between the cities and the suburbs and the change to "Fortress America" with walled communities and private armies.

What of the rest of the world?

Dole pulled the U.S. out of Bosnia, out of Japan, out of Europe, and out of the United Nations. It did not really bother the rest of us. In Europe we had our own problems.

The long economic slide downwards continued - led by unemployment and those falling out of the social welfare net. Like in '68, the '98 riots began again with students and workers in France.

After political and social troubles in a split society in England, Scotland was granted independence - but this just led to more trouble in Wales and other parts of the U.K..

When Italy split into the rich north and the poor south, the European Union had to change.

In 1997 the European Union had canceled its plans for the common euro-currency. Every country was in so bad shape economically, nobody would agree. Politically, the union was falling apart.

The five-tier system was a last attempt to keep Europe together. The date of 2000 was set to allow regions to be represented - whether they were economic, ethnic or language based - anything went. Governments at each level could compete to offer the most effective services.

It was a short-sighted solution, which brought Europe as well as America back into the middle ages.

The economy, more than nationalist factors, was the basis of most problems. For instance: to be competitive, businesses they made local staff redundant and moved production to Asia.

With restructuring and lay-offs, unemployment rose from 20 to over 40 percent. Consumers who were out of work had no more money and just stopped buying.

Advertising and other overheads increased, as companies fought over slices of a cake that was not growing any larger. In fact, more people than ever worked in service industries - keeping the money going round and round- but not producing anything of basic value. Nobody said: "you can't eat money!"

The doom-sayers had their apocalypse. The first of January, 2000 was a black day.

The business crash was blamed om computer bugs, the stock market crash was blamed on programs, while the police tried to control the riots.

There was only one organisation which was able to keep Europe stable through the following depression.

(pause)

The only organisation to hold Europe together then was an anachronism: NATO. Why? Again, some far-sighted military decisions made in the late 90s.

To prevent a cold war from restarting, both Europe and NATO had been widened in '98.

This added the economic and social problems of eastern Europe to a West that was much less able to digest it than West Germany with East Germany.

But better a social problem than a war ...

NATO, in turn, had justified its existence by inventing first, the new peril of Islam, and second, preparing to contain China.

NATO had early successes:
- in a police role in Yugoslavia, which was training for their later, not so visible, tasks
- NATO persuaded the Mahgreb countries of North Africa to keep their southern borders closed and black Africans away from Europe.

But what happened to Africa is another story ...

Let's look at Switzerland.

Switzerland turned to isolationism, and rejected the European Union for the third time in 1999.

Luckily, the Swiss were more self-sufficient most other countries - at least, they could feed themselves.

But the industrial cities of Switzerland were tired of dictatorship by the "mountain dwellers". It was the economy which forced them to take action. Actions which were radical - but for their citizens' survival.

The reconstruction of Switzerland - some say its destruction - started with the Tessin, in the south.

In 1999, Tessin followed the well-established Tirol model and entered into an economic union with Padania (North Italy).

This was followed in 2000 by Northeast Switzerland - the Germany / Austria / Lichtenstein corner, which was one of the first Regions to join the European Union.

In 2002, Regio Basel looked at the German model. They declared Basel a Free City-State and applied to join the Union. Baslers (who were never seen as "real Swiss" by the rest) were regarded as traitors, at least, in the press and media.

Some people would do anything for a job! Others called the army to take action.

Should Switzerland follow the examples of America and Europe?

Those who regarded these acts of secession as treason were speechless this year when Geneva declared itself a republic again.

In conclusion

We have now reached the year 2006, and we're in a mess.

You'll have to read my book to find out the rest - what happened in the other parts of the world, but I warn you - the scenes were not encouraging.

Could there have been an alternative to this scenario? people were asking in 1996.

With hindsight, a better future would require more tolerant and less selfish people than we were, less consumerism and more social responsibility.

There are points of choice - where we take a path to an alternative universe.

These choices occur all the time, and we are the ones to choose. Don't abdicate your responsibility!